Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Box paradox?

Even though it would seem that you have an even chance of having chosen correctly with the first choice, you should always change boxes and switch to Box C. The explanation comes from the fact that your initial guess was based upon 1:2 odds. As soon as the contents of Box B was known, then the odds changed to 50% with your second choice. I know it may seem silly, but statistically you should always swap because otherwise you are still going with your original 1:2 choice instead of 1:1.

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